Megatrends and transport market
Long-term effects on passenger transport
[Frank Hunsicker, Astrid Karl, Günter Lange, Hinrich Schmöe]
The transport market is influenced by various and sometimes competing factors such as cost development and income growth, transport options offered, transport demand and infrastructure. Some of these factors are already under significant change, and the transformation will be even more dramatic in the future. The influencing factors themselves are affected by several leading trends (megatrends) interacting with each other. Examples for such megatrends are: a declining and ageing population, the impacts of globalisation and climate change, worldwide resource shortages, or increasing constraints on public finances and on disposable incomes. This paper analyses the megatrends relevant for the mobility sector, their general context and their impact on transport market indicators. The underlying interdisciplinary approach integrates methods from economics, sociology and spatial science.
