Blocked Modernity?
The effects of demographic and economic change on transport infrastructure in Germany up till the year 2030
[Weert Canzler, Frank Hunsicker, Andreas Knie, Jürgen Peters]
The future effects of demographic and economic change will require varied and highly local responses. The reason being, that there a many different, sometimes contradictory trends which will make themselves felt by the year 2030 – and in dimensions we have never had to deal with before. For example, we will see demographic decline in some regions, which will result in a fall in demand on transport services. On the other hand, the share of senior citizens in the total population will grow and they will be more mobile than the generations before them, resulting in an increase in transport demand.
The political structure in Germany is not geared for these changes. The federal system makes it difficult to allocate funding in an efficient manner. Furthermore, current investments tend to support the current status-quo, instead of actively dealing with the changes there have already been and making ready for the decades to come. What is needed is nothing less than a revision of infrastructure planning. For without it, inequality in the access to infrastructure will increase and potential for social and economic growth will be wasted.
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